United States, Afghanistan And Taliban: An Overview

https://nayadaur.tv/2020/06/united-states-afghanistan-and-taliban-an-overview/
June 3 2020 Naya Daur online

For my presentation/ views of the rise of Islamic State (IS) which will help in better understanding the current writeup better read - Islamic State and Religious extremism that I wrote in 2014

United States International Terrorism and Taliban: An Overview

Prof. Ijaz Khan

After the end of Cold War, the significance of Afghanistan had downgraded to a very low level in the US security perceptions and policy. It was never of much significance in economic evaluations, except for a possible alternate route to Central Asian states. Some concern was expressed when the foreign Jihadis started returning to Afghanistan, poppy production and also due to the increasing regional interventions and rivalries inside Afghanistan, especially that of Iran. However, for US these matters were not significant enough to divert its attention from Eastern Europe.

When Taliban emerged in 1994 and took control of Kabul in 1996, the US developed a cautiously positive view of them. In most of the 90s, at least till the 1998, not Al Qaeda (and Sunnis), but Iran (Shias) was considered the threat. Further, with the rise of Taliban, US experts started differentiating between the traditional Islamists and Pan Islamists. Taliban were termed traditional Islamists, with no international agenda and interested in Islamic system in their country (Afghanistan) only, while the Pan Islamists were those groups that had a global agenda, which included the emerging Al Qaeda too, but more dangerous were Shias, supported by Iran. The US expected Sunni Taliban can be useful against Shia Iran. The fact that Taliban were mostly Pashtuns added to their attraction, due to historic Persian-Afghan rivalry. This perception was further strengthened by the initial negative reaction of Pan Islamists aligned Mujahideen groups, to Taliban. Gulbadin Hekmatyar called Taliban as British agents.
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However, when in August 1998 Al Qaeda carried out lethal attacks against US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the US started taking Al Qaeda as an eminent and serious threat.  The positive (at least acceptability) view of Taliban that may have existed in the US started eroding, as Al Qaeda and its leader were using Afghan territory as a safe haven under the protection of Taliban. Around the same time Human Rights concerns, special treatment of women by Taliban started getting more visibility in the US and West. The suicide attack by the Al Qaeda against USS Cole, a destroyer of the United States Navy, in October 2000, in Yemen's Aden harbor, ended any hopes from Taliban and signaled the loss by US of Taliban to Al Qaeda. The US still engaged Taliban in negotiations via Pakistan, to stop them from permitting the use of Afghan territory by Al Qaeda and other global jihadists, but nothing came of it.  

Then 9/11 happened and after demand to hand over Osama Bin Laden (OBL) was not acceded to by Taliban, the US leading an international coalition attacked and removed Taliban government.

The US main and consistent goal in Afghanistan has been to ensure that it is not used by terrorists against it anywhere and to eliminate Al Qaeda hide outs along with its leadership there. In line with its policy of Liberal Hegemony, US along with military action, supported and helped the creation (not just re construction) of liberal Afghan State. Its military success against Al Qaeda (different than against Taliban), the high point of which was the killing of OBL in May 2011, was also partially facilitated by emergence of Islamic State (IS) which gradually replaced by Al Qaeda.

The US started negotiating with Taliban in 2019, with changes in in its Foreign Policy, which now was based on ‘America First’, abandoning the ‘Liberal Hegemony’ ideas.

For US, under the ‘America First’ policy, it became irrelevant, whether there is democracy or not in a country, the only or at least the most important determinant became, security of US interests. Liberal Hegemony had tied US security with liberal democracy, ‘America First’ untied them. The US considered Taliban minus Al Qaeda is not its problem. Taliban found no problem in accepting severance of ties with an almost non existent organization. The result was the deal with Taliban.

US expects, Taliban sans Al Qaeda will return to being what they were originally, traditional Islamists, with no global agenda, rather in conflict with the new face of global Jihadists, the IS and anti Iran. In the post Al Qaeda era, Iran has regained its status as the top threat to its interests in the Middle East.

The recent UN report, claiming continued relations between Al Qaeda and Taliban, even if correct, though significant to the words and spirit of the US Taliban Deal, is not vital to the ground situation. As noted above, IS has by and large replaced Al Qaeda as the terrorist threat. However, if correct, it indicates the level of trust Taliban can claim to adhere to their commitment of not permitting the use of Afghan territory by global Jihadists.

The issue is, what is the level of surety, IS and Taliban may not get closer (if they are not already) ala Taliban and Al Qaeda? And how much can be counted on 2^nd and 3^rd level Taliban Commanders, not to join IS in case there is no truce/ alliance between their organizations. It must be remembered; even though Taliban were fighting Mujahideen, most Taliban were originally Mujahedeen and more Mujahideen joined them along the way. IS- Khorasan as the IS in Afghanistan is known is also mostly composed of former Taliban. There has been no violent conflict between Taliban and IS in the post deal time. There are also reports of low-level collaboration when either of them attacks Afghan Government of civilian targets. IS founder stayed in Afghanistan under the protection of Taliban, till he moved to Iraq after the US attack on Iraq, forming ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria).

Due to faulty negotiation process leading to a faulty Peace Deal and post deal statements/ actions, there is a likelihood of US leaving Afghanistan, on schedule or earlier, to be in more violent conflict and have pockets which will serve as safe havens for Global Jihadists. Alternatively, there is also a real chance of US getting bogged down in Afghanistan with even more forces.