Afghanistan Crisis: Interpreting Taliban Government

The composition of the 33 member Taliban Government is well known. It is not inclusive is also not contested as well as it reflects the more hardliners, old guard is well established and has been commented by many. Why it is so and what it means for domestic, regional and international scenario needs further debate and understanding. The answer to why will answer the three questions.

The general expectations were, Taliban will announce a cabinet which will have some non Taliban, as well as will be representative of all the ethnic identities of Afghanistan, even If that was just symbolic. But most were taken by surprise by when they announced an exclusive Taliban government. Again the wider expectations/opinions, of Mulla Abdul Ghani Baradar heading it has been proved wrong. Instead they announced an exclusive Taliban Cabinet composed and dominated by hardline, old guard Taliban with strong Haqqani Network presence. Pakistan’s ISI chef Gen. Faiz Hameed made a very public visit to Kabul on the eve of this announcement.

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Published Friday Sept 10 2021

My presentation on 'Pakistan's Role in Afghan Peace Process

My presentation on 'Pakistan's Role in Afghan Peace Process at Webinar on Afghan Peace Process held on 29 September 2020

 

United States, Afghanistan And Taliban: An Overview

https://nayadaur.tv/2020/06/united-states-afghanistan-and-taliban-an-overview/
June 3 2020 Naya Daur online

For my presentation/ views of the rise of Islamic State (IS) which will help in better understanding the current writeup better read - Islamic State and Religious extremism that I wrote in 2014

United States International Terrorism and Taliban: An Overview

Prof. Ijaz Khan

After the end of Cold War, the significance of Afghanistan had downgraded to a very low level in the US security perceptions and policy. It was never of much significance in economic evaluations, except for a possible alternate route to Central Asian states. Some concern was expressed when the foreign Jihadis started returning to Afghanistan, poppy production and also due to the increasing regional interventions and rivalries inside Afghanistan, especially that of Iran. However, for US these matters were not significant enough to divert its attention from Eastern Europe.

When Taliban emerged in 1994 and took control of Kabul in 1996, the US developed a cautiously positive view of them. In most of the 90s, at least till the 1998, not Al Qaeda (and Sunnis), but Iran (Shias) was considered the threat. Further, with the rise of Taliban, US experts started differentiating between the traditional Islamists and Pan Islamists. Taliban were termed traditional Islamists, with no international agenda and interested in Islamic system in their country (Afghanistan) only, while the Pan Islamists were those groups that had a global agenda, which included the emerging Al Qaeda too, but more dangerous were Shias, supported by Iran. The US expected Sunni Taliban can be useful against Shia Iran. The fact that Taliban were mostly Pashtuns added to their attraction, due to historic Persian-Afghan rivalry. This perception was further strengthened by the initial negative reaction of Pan Islamists aligned Mujahideen groups, to Taliban. Gulbadin Hekmatyar called Taliban as British agents.
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Peace in Afghanistan and the Corona Pandemic

Peace in Afghanistan and the Corona Pandemic

Prof. Ijaz Khan

4 April, 2020

Also Published by Naya Daur Media at  https://nayadaur.tv/2020/04/peace-in-afghanistan-and-the-corona-pandemic/
also published by Geopolitical Matters on 13 May 2020 at
https://www.geopoliticalmatters.com/2020/05/coronavirus-corona-pandemic-afghanistan.html 

The Doha agreement between US and Taliban was hailed by some as peace agreement, Taliban celebrated it as a victory, some including the US, called it the first step in a peace-making process, while a few considered it as the initiation of a more violent conflict within Afghanistan.  The post agreement progression of events and controversies is strengthening the perception (right or wrong) of Taliban victory or more violence.  

The Corona Pandemic has slowed or dampened all other concerns the World over, however in Afghanistan it has not dented to any significant level the conflicts and the challenges to peace. ------------ click below 

The Afghan Scenario

The Afghan Scenario
(Original Title, 'Afghan Presidential elections and Pakistan'

THE second round of the Afghan elections is due on June 14. The first round has thrown up Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Dr Ashraf Ghani as the front runners. The second round is required by the Afghan constitution, which states that if no candidate secures more than 50 % of the votes cast, a second round should be held among the top two contenders.

The Afghan elections are being watched very closely as the whole process and its final result will have an impact on future developments in Afghanistan and the region. Observers, especially Kabul’s neighbors, have interest in the way the situation develops as it will have a direct bearing on the post-December draw-down of US/ NAtO forces.

For more click anywhere above to go to the Daily Dawn online where it was published

Need for revisiting Pakistan’s Afghan policy

Pakistan’s reluctance to act decisively against the Taliban and/or other related targets inside Pakistan made Pakistan’s demands to have a strong say in the Afghan solution not trustworthy

Need for re visiting Pakistan’s Afghan Policy and Role in finding Peace

Published in two parts on 19 and 20 August 2013

Need for Re Visiting Pakistan's Afghan Policy

Pakistan tried to bargain a solution for Afghanistan that will ensure an upper hand to groups it considers friendly to it. Pakistan’s diplomacy relied on US plans/ needs to disengage militarily from Afghanistan. Pakistan also depended on the strength it gained from its location and history of the past two and half decades which gave Pakistan a real influence in Afghan affairs. Pakistan has been using that influence as a bargaining chip. If played appropriately, it could have got Pakistan a much better deal. However, it appears Pakistan has not just failed to gain much, but has lost in terms of domestic security; is facing a crisis of existential proportions, economic meltdown, and international and regional (almost) isolation with a very negative image. It’s getting late but if Pakistan is somehow able to make some quick adjustments in its demands and methods can still clinch a favorable deal. At least, it can minimize the loss.

Searching for Peace in Afghanistan as Dec. 2014 comes nearer: Perceptions, Wishes Apprehensions and Policies

As the December 2014 deadline for the withdrawal (from active combat) of foreign troops in Afghanistan draws near, the search for a peace deal in and on Afghanistan has become crucial. Diplomats from various capitals of the world, especially the West, are getting desperate to find a quick solution. The regional states, including India, Pakistan and Iran, are pushing for a situation that will suit them. China and Russia are also becoming quietly active. There is widespread apprehension that the Taliban will run over Kabul within a short time of the drawdown of forces and withdrawal from active combat. This appears to be a misplaced fear, or for some a wish. Most analyses of such a scenario try to draw parallels between the Soviet withdrawal and the curr - See more at:
http://www.thefridaytimes.com/beta3/tft/article.php?issue=20130628&page=13

A Comment on Anatol Lieven's perception of Pakistan

A Comment on Anatol Lieven's perception of Pakistan

A Mutiny Grows in Punjab by Anatol Lieven: A Comment from Peshawar

Prof. Ijaz Khan

Sometimes even (partially) correct factual description of a situation may lead to interpretations and policy recommendations not really warranted by it. Anatol Lieven in his book ‘Pakistan: A Hard Country’ has done precisely that. He builds on his arguments in his essay titled ‘A Mutiny Grows in Punjab’. His arguments and policy recommendations can be summarized as

Taliban and Pashtun Identity

Taliban and Pashtun identity
originally published in 'The Friday Times' in January 2012 is no more available in its archives, however, LUBP an online group had re published it and is there. you can read it there or here too

Nationalist movements promote and protect national language, culture and identity through political expression. They aim to control their affairs without outside interference. They are about managing their economic resources by themselves. They may want autonomy within a multinational state in order to structure it to protect their identity, or in certain cases for an independent state of their own.

Taliban meet none of these criteria in Afghanistan or Pakistan, and therefore cannot be considered a Pashtun nationalist movement. They take ideological and political inspiration from Arabs and other non-Pashtuns. They have consciously, as a matter of policy, targeted different cultural traits of Pashtuns, like tribal councils and folk music; they are not concerned about the language and promote mostly Arabic and/or interestingly, Urdu; Economic resources or their control is not their concern; neither is any political or administrative manifestation of Pashtun identity their goal.

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Are We At War?

Are We at War? My take on the NATO Shelling of Pakistani securioty checkpost in Mohamand Agency

Pakistan's security Thinking

Pakistan's Security Thinking -
 Express Tribune
Nov 14 2011
Security is a concept that changes with the times, responding to systemic changes in human governance, priorities, technology, economy as well as sociology. The most important question is what you want to secure. A related question is defining the ‘what’ in the above question. Pakistan appears to be unable to respond to these issues.
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Diplomatic bargaining at the edge - The Current Pak US Row

The US Pak Row: Diplomatic Bargaining at the Edge

Prof. Ijaz Khan

The conflict in the Af Pak region has entered a new phase, which may be termed the pre 2014 phase is currently witnessing a serious row between United States and Pakistan, supposedly allies in the ‘War against Terrorism’. All parties want to influence the outcome in 2014 so that the post 2014 situation best meets its perceived interests. To influence that outcome Pakistan and U.S are pursuing policies that appear to be at odds. Both also consider the behavior of the other to be vital for achievement of its goal. So, they are using various means to influence each other’s behavior. The current row between the two allies can be explained as an overheated diplomatic bargaining.