The Afghan Scenario

The Afghan Scenario
(Original Title, 'Afghan Presidential elections and Pakistan'

THE second round of the Afghan elections is due on June 14. The first round has thrown up Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Dr Ashraf Ghani as the front runners. The second round is required by the Afghan constitution, which states that if no candidate secures more than 50 % of the votes cast, a second round should be held among the top two contenders.

The Afghan elections are being watched very closely as the whole process and its final result will have an impact on future developments in Afghanistan and the region. Observers, especially Kabul’s neighbors, have interest in the way the situation develops as it will have a direct bearing on the post-December draw-down of US/ NAtO forces.

For more click anywhere above to go to the Daily Dawn online where it was published

There is No Insurgency in FATA - The Whole Article

(This write up appeared in 'The Friday Times' Lahore in three parts, on 17, 24 and 31 January 2014. The author (that's me) consider it needs to be read as one whole. So, has taken the liberty to share the whole write up in one go)
There is no insurgency in FATA – I   - 17 Jan 2014

There is no insurgency in FATA – II  - 24 Jan 2014

There is no insurgency in FATA – III - 31 Jan 2014There is No Insurgency in FATA

Prof. Ijaz Khan

Dept of International Relations

University of Peshawar

There is a continuous talk of an insurgency in FATA and the need to Counter Insurgency (COIN) action there since at least 2003-4. In 2004, Pakistan Army moved into FATA for COIN operations.  Experts and others interested have strong opinion about how to end insurgency in FATA restore ‘writ of the State’ there.

One plans and acts according to the problem or challenge one is facing. Like a doctor can only prescribe correct medicine if s/he diagnoses the disease correctly, decision makers must first correctly identify the problem, its level, intensity and location, assess their own capabilities and take a decision accordingly. The debate revolves around a situation in FATA and more specifically in the two agencies, North and South Waziristan. That situation is termed as insurgency and experts and others interested give opinion on how to deal with it, suggesting various counter insurgency policies and actions. The contention of this scribe is the situation in Waziristan and rest of FATA is not that of insurgency. This mistake in identifying the situation has resulted in counterproductive policies and actions.

Making a Counter Terrorism Policy for Pakistan: A Question of Democratic Decision Making

Making a Counter Terrorism Policy for Pakistan: A Question of

Democratic Decision Making

Prof. Ijaz Khan

Department of International Relations

University of Peshawar

The raging debate on a Counter Terrorism Policy in Pakistan seems to be heading towards a consensus, at least among the major parties (with slight variations despite stronger rhetoric); concerted action should follow after negotiation are given a chance. 

Need for revisiting Pakistan’s Afghan policy

Pakistan’s reluctance to act decisively against the Taliban and/or other related targets inside Pakistan made Pakistan’s demands to have a strong say in the Afghan solution not trustworthy

Need for re visiting Pakistan’s Afghan Policy and Role in finding Peace

Published in two parts on 19 and 20 August 2013

Need for Re Visiting Pakistan's Afghan Policy

Pakistan tried to bargain a solution for Afghanistan that will ensure an upper hand to groups it considers friendly to it. Pakistan’s diplomacy relied on US plans/ needs to disengage militarily from Afghanistan. Pakistan also depended on the strength it gained from its location and history of the past two and half decades which gave Pakistan a real influence in Afghan affairs. Pakistan has been using that influence as a bargaining chip. If played appropriately, it could have got Pakistan a much better deal. However, it appears Pakistan has not just failed to gain much, but has lost in terms of domestic security; is facing a crisis of existential proportions, economic meltdown, and international and regional (almost) isolation with a very negative image. It’s getting late but if Pakistan is somehow able to make some quick adjustments in its demands and methods can still clinch a favorable deal. At least, it can minimize the loss.

A Step Forward on The Democratic Road?

My questions that begs answer, to be able to say yes Pakistan has moved forward on the Democratic Road as a result of May 11 2013 elections. Answers will become clear within few months. We must watch carefully

A Step Forward on the Democratic Road?                              

Daily Times May 27 2013

 May 11 elections are generally hailed as a major step forward in the direction of Democracy in Pakistan. Arguments can be forwarded both in favor and against this position. Democratization means transfer of real powers to people. It is a process of including the secluded. People exercise their control through elected representatives. Elections are the key to Democracy. It can be claimed without fear of reasonable rebuttal that these elections have generated the most controversies; keeping aside the 1977 elections, which will need a different debate. Having said that, one must also understand that democracy never comes neatly and disciplined. It is noisy and the road to it is bumpy. Democracy also does not come at once; it comes gradually through a continuous process. So, despite many controversies and legitimate questions about its fairness, elections have taken place after five years of an elected government, which is positive occurrence in its own right. A new government is ready to replace the outgoing one at center. In two provinces government will change hands while in two those in power earlier have returned. Despite the controversies this can become a step in the right direction. However, challenges and dangers to the process have not finished. The new elected governments, especially at the center have the task of consolidating and furthering the democratic gains. This write up focuses on the federal government

Pashtuns in the Crossfire: Pashtun Politics in the Shadow of ‘War against Terrorism

published online as briefing paper No. 19 by Pakistan Security Research Unit, (PSRU) Bradford University now at Durham University, UK,  https://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/psru/briefings/archive/Brief19finalised3.pdf